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5 Factors That Reveal Where the Real Estate Market Is Really Headed

5 Factors That Reveal Where the Real Estate Market Is Really Headed

In a July release, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported that home sales had fallen for three months in a row after reaching an all-time high in March.1 So could one of the world’s hottest real estate markets finally be headed for a downturn?

We wouldn’t bet on it. That’s because even though sales have slowed, it was still the strongest June on record—and 13% higher than last year.1

“Don’t be fooled — this is still an extremely strong level of demand,” Bank of Montreal Economist Robert Kavcic told CBC News. “Home sales have backed off extreme levels seen in recent months, but demand is still historically strong and driving strong price growth. We believe that sales activity will continue to gradually cool in the year ahead, but it’s going to take higher interest rates to soften the market in a meaningful way.”1

So what can we expect from Canadian real estate? Here are five factors that illustrate where the housing market is today and is likely heading tomorrow.

 

HOME PRICE INCREASES MAY LEVEL OFF NEXT YEAR

The Canadian Real Estate Association predicts the national average home price will reach $677,774 by the end of 2021, which would be a 19.3% increase over last year. “While market conditions have eased a little in recent months, they nonetheless continue to favour sellers to some extent in virtually all local markets,” the association says.2

But for the remainder of 2021 and into 2022, the association anticipates pricing trends will head toward more normal territory. “Limited supply and higher prices are expected to tap the brakes on activity in 2022 compared to 2021,” according to the association.2

That translates into the association’s forecast of only a 0.6% uptick, to $681,500, in the national average home price for 2022.2 If that happens, it could prompt some buyers who had been reluctant to make purchases this year to enter the market next year.

What does it mean for you?

If you’re a homeowner, now might be the time to look at selling. That’s because the number of available homes continues to be relatively low, and price appreciation has begun to slow. We can help you prepare and market your home to take advantage of the current seller’s market.

 

HOME SALES ARE TAPERING OFF

If the 2021 home market in Canada is a wildfire, then 2022 could be more like a campfire. The Canadian Real Estate Association anticipates a slowdown in home sales activity in 2022 following an extremely busy 2021.3

An estimated 682,900 properties are expected to trade hands through Canadian Multiple Listing Service systems in 2021, which would be an increase of 23.8% from 2020, the association says.3

Next year is shaping up to be much less active, with national home sales forecast to decline 13% to around 594,000 properties in 2022.3

“This easing trend is expected to play out across Canada,” the association says, “with buyers facing both higher prices and a lack of available supply, while at the same time the urgency to purchase a home base to ride out the pandemic continues to fade alongside the virus itself.”3

The “easing trend” is already happening. Across the country, a record-high 69,702 homes were sold in March. But just a month later, the national number of homes sold slipped 12.5% to 60,967. ⁴ Home sales volume dropped another 7.4% in May to 56,156. ⁵

“One of the world’s [most active] housing markets appears to be slowing down,” the Bloomberg news service proclaimed in June in a report about the Canadian home market. ⁶

What does it mean for you?

Are you struggling to buy a home in today’s highly competitive market? If so, 2022 might be a good time to pursue a purchase because you may face less competition. However, one drawback of waiting is that mortgage rates are expected to go up. We can help put you on the right path toward homeownership, whether you want to buy now or next year.

 

SUPPLY OF HOMES REMAINS LOW

The housing shortage in Canada persists.

Before the pandemic, the number of available homes nationally sat at a 14-year low and the number of months of inventory had fallen below four months, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.3

Inventory below four months puts the supply in “seller’s market territory,” the association says.3 Inventory refers to the number of months it would take for the current supply of homes on the market to be sold at the existing pace.⁷

In June, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported the national inventory of available homes was close to two months, reflecting an “unprecedented imbalance of supply and demand.”3 National inventory hit a record low of 1.7 months in March, compared with the long-term average of more than five months. ⁷

“At a time where so many markets are struggling with historically low inventory, sales activity depends on a steady stream of new listings each month,” the association says. ⁷

What does it mean for you?

A tight supply of available homes puts sellers in a strong position as long as demand stays high. So, if you’re a homeowner, placing your home on the market when demand exceeds supply could bring you a higher price. We can help you figure out when to sell so that you extract the maximum value from your home.

 

HOME CONSTRUCTION ON THE VERGE OF STABILIZING

Newly built homes add, of course, to the supply of homes available to buyers. And it appears that home construction in Canada is on the upswing. ⁸

For all of 2021, construction is projected to begin on as many as 230,000 new homes in Canada, up from a little over 217,800 in 2020, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC). Even more homes could get underway in 2022 (as many as 234,500) and 2023 (231,900). ⁸

“Housing starts will stabilize at levels consistent with household formation by the end of 2023,” according to CMHC. ⁹

What does it mean for you?

More newly built homes coming on the market could mean an opportunity for buyers, as construction boosts the supply of available properties and eases the strain on demand. Bottom line: An influx of new homes may open more doors to homeownership. We can give you a hand in locating a new or existing home that fits your budget and your needs.

 

MORTGAGE RATES ARE SET TO RISE

Low mortgage interest rates help entice buyers to make a home purchase. That’s certainly been the case in Canada in recent months. However, mortgage rates are poised to creep up this year and next year, and even into 2023.10

An analysis from Mortgage Sandbox indicates five-year Canadian mortgage rates are expected to remain low by historical standards, but they are expected to continue rising in 2022 and 2023. The analysis indicates the fixed rate for a five-year mortgage could climb to 3% in the third quarter of 2022. ¹¹

Low mortgage rates typically make it easier for homebuyers to qualify for a mortgage, as well. But on June 1, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions raised the mortgage “stress test” qualifying rate from 4.79% to 5.25%.12

According to the Toronto Sun, “It was intended in part to slow down the overheated housing market and likely in part because inflation (and higher interest rates) is on the horizon.”12

In a recent report, the British Columbia Real Estate Association forecast, “rising Canadian inflation — and the extent to which that inflation is a temporary phenomenon — is set to shape how rates evolve over the next year.”13

What does it mean for you?

Given the prospect that Canadian mortgage rates may go up during the rest of this year and into 2022, now might be the right time to think about borrowing money to buy a home. When interest rates rise, you pay more to borrow money. Whether you’re buying a new home or up for a renewal, you can lower your risk by locking in a fixed-rate rather than variable-rate mortgage.

 

 ARE YOU THINKING OF BUYING OR SELLING?

It can be tough to sort out the Canadian housing market—where are home prices heading, are mortgage rates going up, is it the right time to buy or sell? We can help you answer all those questions, and more. We then can work with you to come up with a plan tailored to your unique situation. Let us be your partner in the homebuying or home-selling journey.

 

 

 

 

Sources:

  1. CBC –
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/crea-june-stats-1.6103715
  2. Canadian Real Estate Association –
    https://www.crea.ca/housing-market-stats/quarterly-forecasts/
  3. Canadian Real Estate Association – https://www.creacafe.ca/quarterly-forecast-housing-activity-to-continue-easing-over-second-half-of-2021-and-into-2022/
  4. Global News –
    https://globalnews.ca/news/7868251/canada-home-sales-down-april/
  5. Global News –
    https://globalnews.ca/news/7950863/canada-home-sales-may-crea/
  6. Bloomberg – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/canada-housing-worlds-second-bubbliest-market-starts-to-look-fatigued
  7. Canadian Real Estate Association –
    https://creastats.crea.ca/en-CA/
  8. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. – https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sites/cmhc/professional/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market/housing-market-outlook/2021/housing-market-outlook-61500-spring-2021-en.pdf
  9. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. – https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/blog/2021/housing-markets-expected-moderate-risks-remain
  10. Global News –
    https://globalnews.ca/news/7962282/rising-interest-rates-canadas-housing-market/
  11. Mortgage Sandbox –
    https://www.mortgagesandbox.com/mortgage-interest-rate-forecast
  12. Toronto Sun –
    https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/wild-new-stress-test-rate-makes-it-more-difficult-for-home-buyers-to-qualify-for-mortgage
  13. British Columbia Real Estate Association – https://www.bcrea.bc.ca/wp-content/uploads/mortgagerateforecast.pdf

 

 

Posted by Christine Pecharich in Blog Posts
Move-Up vs. Second Home: Which One Is Right For You?

Move-Up vs. Second Home: Which One Is Right For You?

The pandemic has changed the way many of us live, work, and attend school—and those changes have impacted our priorities when it comes to choosing a home.

According to a recent survey by The Harris Poll, 75% of respondents who have begun working remotely would like to continue doing so—and 66% would consider moving if they no longer had to commute as often. Some of the top reasons were to gain a dedicated office space (31%), a larger home (30%), and more rooms overall (29%).1

And now that virtual school has become a reality for many families, that need for additional space has only intensified. A growing number of buyers are choosing homes further from town as they seek out more room and less congestion. In fact, a recent survey found that nearly 40% of urban dwellers had considered leaving the city because of the COVID-19 outbreak.2

But not everyone is permanently sold on suburban or rural life. Instead, some are choosing to purchase a second home as a co-primary residence or frequent getaway. Without the requirements of a five-day commute, many homeowners feel less tethered to their primary residence and are eager for a change of scenery after spending so much time at home.

If you’re feeling cramped in your current space, you’ve probably considered a move. But what type of home would suit you best: a move-up home or a second home? Let’s explore each option to help you determine which one is right for you.

WHY CHOOSE A MOVE-UP HOME?

A move-up home is typically a larger or nicer home. It’s a great choice for families or individuals who simply need more space, a better location, or want features their current home doesn’t offer—like an inground pool, a different floor plan, or a dedicated home office.

Most move-up buyers choose to sell their current home and use the proceeds as a down payment on their next one. If you’re struggling with a lack of functional or outdoor space in your current home, a move-up home can greatly improve your everyday life. And with mortgage rates at their lowest level in history, you may be surprised how much home you can afford to buy without increasing your monthly payment.3,4

To learn more about mortgage rates, contact us for a free copy of our recent report!
Lowest Mortgage Rates in History: What It Means for Homeowners and Buyers”

One major benefit of choosing a move-up home is that you can typically afford a nicer place if you spend your entire budget on one property. However, if you’re longing for that vacation vibe, a second home may be a better choice for you.

WHY CHOOSE A SECOND HOME?

Once reserved for the ultra-wealthy, second homes have become more mainstream. Home sales are surging in many resort and bedroom communities as city dwellers search for a place to escape the crowds and quarantine in comfort.5 And with air travel on hold for many families, some are channeling their vacation budgets into vacation homes that can be utilized throughout the year.

A second home can also be a good option if you’re preparing for retirement. By purchasing your retirement home now, you can lock in a low interest rate, start paying down the mortgage, and begin enjoying the perks of retirement living while you’re still fit and active. Plus, it’s easier to qualify for a mortgage while you’re employed, although you may be charged a slightly higher interest rate than on a primary home loan.6

One advantage of choosing a second home is that you can offset a portion of the costs—and in some cases turn a profit—by renting it out on a platform like Airbnb or Vrbo. However, be sure to consult with a real estate professional or rental management company to get a realistic sense of the property’s true income potential.

WHICH ONE IS RIGHT FOR ME?

You may read this and think: I’d really like both a move-up home AND a second home! But if you’re dealing with a limited budget (aren’t we all?), you’ll probably need to make a choice. These three tactics can help you decide which option is right for you.

1. Determine Your Time and Financial Budget

You may meet the bank’s qualifications to purchase a home, but do you have the time, energy, and financial resources to maintain it? This is an important question to ask yourself, no matter what type of home you choose.

Most buyers realize that a second home will mean double mortgages, utilities, taxes, and insurance. But consider all the extra time and expense that goes into maintaining two properties. Two lawns to mow. Two houses to clean. Two sets of systems and appliances that can malfunction. Second homes aren’t always a vacation. Make sure you’re prepared for the labor and carrying costs that go into maintaining another residence.

Of course, some move-up homes require more work than a second home. For example, if your move-up option is a major fixer-upper, you’ll probably invest more energy and capital than you would on a small vacation condo by the beach. Have an honest discussion about how much time and money you want to spend on your new property. Would a move-up home or a second home be a better fit given your parameters?

        2. Rank Your Priorities

 If you’re still undecided, make a wish list of the characteristics you’d like in your new home. Then rank each item from

most to least important. This exercise can help you determine your “must-have” features—and which ones you may need to sacrifice or delay. Here’s a sample to help you get started:

 

# FEATURE
  Dedicated home office
  Extra bedroom
  Pool
  Walk to the beach
  Big backyard
  Close to friends and family
  Short commute to the office
  Investment potential

      3. Explore Your Options

Once you’ve determined your parameters and priorities, it’s time to begin your home search.
If you’re still not sure whether a move-up home or a second home is right for you, we can help.

Contact us to schedule a free consultation. We’ll discuss your options and help you assess the pros and cons of each, given your unique circumstances.

We can also send you property listings for both move-up homes and second homes within your budget so you can better envision each scenario. Sometimes, viewing listings of homes that meet your criteria can make the decision clear.

LET’S GET MOVING

Whether you’re ready to make a move or need help weighing your options, we’d love to help. We can determine your current home’s value and show you local properties that fit within your budget. Or, if your heart is set on a second home in another market, we can refer you to an agent in your dream locale. Contact us today to schedule a free, no-obligation consultation!

 

 

Sources:
1. Zillow –
https://www.zillow.com/research/coronavirus-remote-work-suburbs-27046/
2. The Harris Poll –

Should you flee your city? Almost 40% have considered it during the pandemic


3. MarketWatch –
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/mortgage-rates-keeping-falling-so-will-they-finally-drop-to-0-2020-08-13
4. Toronto Star –
https://www.thestar.com/business/2020/08/07/you-can-get-a-fixed-rate-as-low-as-184-per-cent-which-is-unbelievable-low-mortgage-rates-driving-up-home-prices.html
5. Kiplinger –
https://www.kiplinger.com/real-estate/buying-a-home/601091/timely-reasons-to-buy-a-vacation-home
6. The Press-Enterprise –

5 tips on when should you buy a retirement house (hint: before you quit work)

Posted by Christine Pecharich
Is Now a Good Time to Buy or Sell Real Estate?

Is Now a Good Time to Buy or Sell Real Estate?

Traditionally, spring is one of the busiest times of the year for real estate. But the coronavirus outbreak—and subsequent stay-at-home orders—led many buyers and sellers to put their moving plans on hold. In April, sales volume fell to its lowest level since 1984, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.1

However, while sales have fallen, prices have remained stable. The average home price in April was down just 1.3% from the same month last year.1 And in many metropolitan areas, prices have continued to rise. The Teranet–National Bank Composite House Price Index, which measures 11 major Canadian markets, showed home prices in April were up 5.3% from a year earlier.2

But given safety concerns and the current economic climate, is it prudent to jump back into the real estate market?

Before you decide, it’s important to consider where the housing market is headed, how the real estate process has changed, and your own individual needs and circumstances.

WHAT’S AHEAD FOR THE HOUSING MARKET?

In response to the economic slowdown, the Bank of Canada has slashed interest rates.3 That’s good news for home buyers who have struggled to afford a mortgage in the past. Lower mortgage rates can bring down monthly payments or increase a buyer’s purchasing power while making it easier to qualify for a loan.

And at a recent press conference, Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz told reporters that interest rates would likely remain low for the foreseeable future. He also noted that the country is on track to meet the central bank’s “best-case scenario for recovery” as outlined in April, and he didn’t predict damage to the economy would be as “dire” as some have speculated.4

While many buyers are eager to take advantage of low mortgage rates, some wonder if recessionary pressures could drive down home prices, too. Economists at the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation predict that prices will decrease over the next 12 months.5 However, many real estate industry veterans expect supply and demand fundamentals to prevent a drastic drop in home values.6

There’s been a shortage of affordable homes on the market for years, and that inventory shortage has helped to prop up prices—even as sales have slowed. That’s because supply and demand have fallen at around the same pace.7 Of course, some market segments have fared better than others. For example, demand has softened for urban condos in some areas, which has caused prices to drop. Whereas, the supply of single-family homes in many neighbourhoods has dried up, leaving eager buyers to compete for listings.7

There are certainly opportunities out in the marketplace for both buyers and sellers. But now more than ever, it’s crucial to have a professional real estate agent who understands your local market dynamics and can help you assess the best time to buy or list your home.

HOW HAS THE REAL ESTATE PROCESS CHANGED?

The safety of our clients and our team members is our top priority. That’s why we’ve developed a process for buyers and sellers that utilizes technology to minimize personal contact.

For our listings, we’re holding online open houses, offering virtual viewings, and conducting walk-through video tours. We’re also using video chat to qualify interested buyers before we book in-person showings. This enables us to promote your property to a broad audience while limiting physical foot traffic to only serious buyers.

Likewise, our buyer clients can view properties online and take virtual video tours to minimize the number of homes they step inside. Ready to visit a property in person? We can decrease surface contact by asking the seller to turn on all the lights and open doors and cabinets before your scheduled showing.

The majority of our “paperwork” is also digital. In fact, many of the legal and financial documents involved in buying and selling a home went online years ago. You can safely view and eSign contracts from your smartphone or computer.

 While these new ways of conducting business may seem strange at first, keep in mind, many military clients, international buyers, and others have utilized virtual methods to buy and sell homes for years.

IS IT THE RIGHT TIME FOR ME TO MAKE A MOVE?

The reality is, there’s no “one size fits all” answer as to whether it’s a good time to buy or sell a home because everyone’s circumstances are unique. But now that you know the state of the market and what you can expect as you shop for real estate, consider the following questions:

Why do you want or need to move?

It’s important to consider why you want to move and if your needs may shift over the next year. For example, if you need a larger home for your growing family, your space constraints aren’t likely to go away. In fact, they could be amplified as you spend more time at home.

However, if you’re planning a move to be closer to your office, consider whether your commute could change. Some companies are rethinking their office dynamics and may encourage their employees to work remotely on a permanent basis.

How urgently do you need to complete your move?

 If you have a new baby on the way or want to be settled before schools open in the fall, we recommend that you begin aggressively searching as soon as possible. With fewer homes on the market, it’s taking longer than usual for clients to find and purchase a home.

However, if your timeline is flexible, you may be well-positioned to score a deal. We’re seeing more highly-incentivized sellers who are willing to negotiate on terms and price. Talk to us about setting up a search so we can keep an eye out for any bargains that pop up. And get pre-qualified for a mortgage now so you’ll be ready to act quickly.

If you’re eager to sell this year, now is the time to begin prepping your home for the market. Prices could fluctuate, and experts predict a second wave of infections may necessitate another lockdown.8 If you wait, you might miss your window of opportunity.

How has your particular market segment been impacted?

Certain segments will weather this economic downturn better than others. It’s important to understand the market dynamics of your particular area, price point, and housing type. The truth is, broad macroeconomic projections rarely paint an accurate picture of the day-to-day market realities of a given neighbourhood.

How long do you plan to stay in your new home?

During times of market uncertainty, your best bet is to buy a home you can envision yourself keeping for several years. Fortunately, with decreased competition and ultra-low mortgage rates, you’ll be well-positioned to score a great deal.

Is your income stable?

If there’s a good chance you could lose your job, you may be better off waiting to buy a home. The exception would be if you’re planning to downsize. Moving to a less expensive home could allow you to tap into your home equity or cut down on your monthly expenses.

WHEN YOU’RE READY TO MOVE—WE’RE READY TO HELP

While uncertain market conditions may give pause to some buyers and sellers, they can actually present an opportunity for those who are willing, able, and motivated to make a move.

Your average spring season would be flooded with real estate activity. But right now, only motivated players are out in the market. That means that if you’re looking to buy, you’re in a better position to negotiate a great price. And today’s low mortgage rates could give a big boost to your purchasing power. In fact, if you’ve been priced out of the market before, this may be the perfect time to look.

If you’re ready to sell, you’ll have fewer listings to compete against in your neighbourhood and price range. But you’ll want to act quickly—a second wave of coronavirus cases could be coming later this year. Ask yourself how you will feel if you have to face another lockdown in your current home.

Let’s schedule a free virtual consultation to discuss your individual needs and circumstances. We can help you assess your options and create a plan that makes you feel both comfortable and confident during these unprecedented times.

Read what our clients have to say about us

The above references an opinion and is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be financial advice. Consult a financial professional for advice regarding your individual needs.

 

Sources:

  1. CTV News –
    https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/canadian-home-sales-fall-to-record-breaking-36-year-low-1.4940984
  2. House Price Index –
    https://housepriceindex.ca/2020/05/april2020/
  3. CBC –
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/bank-of-canada-interest-rate-1.5512098
  4. Financial Post –
    https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/bank-of-canada-governor-says-interest-rates-will-probably-stay-low
  5. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation –
    https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/media-newsroom/speeches/2020/supporting-financial-stability-during-covid19-pandemic
  6. RE/MAX –
    https://blog.remax.ca/no-nosedive-ahead-for-canadian-real-estate-prices-re-max/
  7. Global News –
    https://globalnews.ca/news/6943727/coronavirus-housing-market-good-time-to-buy/
  8. CTV News –
    https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/the-second-wave-will-come-and-experts-say-canada-is-not-prepared-1.4948733
Posted by Christine Pecharich
Oakville April 2020 Market Stats

Oakville April 2020 Market Stats

GTA REALTORS® Release April 2020 Stats

Toronto Regional Real Estate Board President Michael Collins released the following key housing market statistics for April 2020:

Home Sales and Listings

  • Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 2,975 residential transactions through TRREB’s MLS® This result was down by 67 per cent compared to April 2019. Weekday sales remained within a relatively steady range during the month, averaging 130 per day.
  • New listings amounted to 6,174 in April 2020 – down on a year-over-year basis by a similar rate compared to sales (-64.1 per cent).

Home Prices

  • The average selling price for April 2020 transactions was $821,392 – up by 0.1 per cent compared to the average price of $820,373 reported for April 2019. The semi-detached and townhouse market segments experienced annual average price growth above the rate of inflation. The condominium apartment and detached segments experienced year-over-year price declines on average.
  • The trend for the MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark, which had been on an upward trajectory since the beginning of 2019 flattened in April. On a year-over-year basis, the Benchmark was up by 10 per cent.
  • The MLS® HPI indices represent prices for typical homes with consistent attributes from one period to the next. The fact that the MLS® HPI was up year-over-year by a greater rate than the average selling price suggests that the share of higher end deals completed in April 2020 versus April 2019 was down
Posted by Christine Pecharich in Market Reports, Oakville
Milton April 2020 Market Statistics

Milton April 2020 Market Statistics

GTA REALTORS® Release April 2020 Stats
Toronto Regional Real Estate Board President Michael Collins released the following key housing market statistics for April 2020:
Home Sales and Listings
• Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 2,975 residential transactions through TRREB’s MLS® System. This result was down by 67 per cent compared to April 2019. Weekday sales remained within a relatively steady range during the month, averaging 130 per day.
New listings amounted to 6,174 in April 2020 – down on a year-over-year basis by a similar rate compared to sales (-64.1 per cent).
Home Prices
• The average selling price for April 2020 transactions was $821,392 – up by 0.1 per cent compared to the average price of $820,373 reported for April 2019. The semi-detached and townhouse market segments experienced annual average price growth above the rate of inflation. The condominium apartment and detached segments experienced year-over-year price declines on average.
• The trend for the MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark, which had been on an upward trajectory since the beginning of 2019 flattened in April. On a year-over-year basis, the Benchmark was up by 10 per cent.
• The MLS® HPI indices represent prices for typical homes with consistent attributes from one period to the next. The fact that the MLS® HPI was up year-over-year by a greater rate than the average selling price suggests that the share of higher end deals completed in April 2020 versus April 2019 was down

Posted by Christine Pecharich in Market Reports, Milton
DECEMBER MARKET STATISTICS

DECEMBER MARKET STATISTICS

GTA REALTORS® Release December and Annual 2019 Stats

January 7, 2020 — Toronto Real Estate Board President Michael Collins reported that December 2019 residential sales reported through TREB’s MLS® System by Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® were up by 17.4 per cent year-over-year to 4,399. Total sales for calendar year 2019 amounted to 87,825 – up by 12.6 per cent compared to the decade low 78,015 sales reported in 2018. On an annual basis, 2019 sales were in line with the median annual sales result for the past decade.

“We certainly saw a recovery in sales activity in 2019, particularly in the second half of the year. As anticipated, many home buyers who were initially on the sidelines moved back into the market place starting in the spring. Buyer confidence was buoyed by a strong regional economy and declining contract mortgage rates over the course of the year,” said Mr. Collins.

While sales were up in 2019, the number of new listings entered into TREB’s MLS® System was down by 2.4 per cent year-over-year. For the past decade, annual new listings have been largely in a holding pattern between 150,000 and 160,000, despite the upward trend in home prices over the same period.

“Over the last ten years, TREB has been drawing attention to the housing supply issue in the GTA. Increasingly, policy makers, research groups of varying scope and other interested parties have acknowledged that the lack of a diverse supply of ownership and rental housing continues to hamper housing affordability in the GTA. Taking 2019 as an example, we experienced a strong sales increase up against a decline in supply. Tighter market conditions translated into accelerating price growth. Expect further acceleration in 2020 if there is no relief on the supply front,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Chief Market Analyst.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 7.3 per cent on a year-over-year basis in December 2019. From June 2019 onward, the annual growth rate in the MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark accelerated. The average selling price in December 2019 was $837,788 – up almost 12 per cent year-over-year. For calendar year 2019, the average selling price was $819,319 – up by four per cent compared to $787,856 in 2018.

Milton Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 5.3%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  + 17.5 %

Oakville Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 0.2%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  + 7 %

 

Burlington Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 2.4%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  + 8.1 %

Halton Hills Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 3.8%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  + 17.3 %

Mississauga Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 7.7%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  + 12.0 %

Posted by Christine Pecharich in Burlington, Georgetown, Market Reports, Milton, Mississauga, Oakville
SEPTEMBER 2019 MARKET STATISTICS

SEPTEMBER 2019 MARKET STATISTICS

GTA REALTORS® Release September 2019 Stats

October 3, 2019 — Toronto Real Estate Board President Michael Collins announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 7,825 sales through TREB’s MLS® System in September 2019. This result represented strong year-over-year sales growth of 22 per cent compared to 6,414 sales reported in September 2018. It is important to note, however, that sales remain well-below the record September 2016 peak of more than 9,800 sales.

On a preliminary seasonally adjusted basis, the September 2019 sales level remained in virtually the same as the August 2019 result.

The supply of listings continued to be a concern in September 2019, with new listings down by 1.9 per cent year-over-year to 15,611. We have experienced multiple months this year wherein the annual rate of sales growth outpaced the annual rate of new listings growth, resulting in the overall number of active listings at month-end being well-below last year’s levels. This speaks to tightening market conditions and an accelerating annual rate of price growth.

The annual rate of price growth in September reached the highest point so far in 2019. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was up by 5.2 per cent on a year-over-year basis in September. The average selling price for all home types combined was up by a similar annual rate of 5.8 per cent to $843,115.

On a preliminary seasonally adjusted basis, the September 2019 average selling price was up by 1.2 per cent compared to August 2019.

Milton Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 4.5%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  + 21.4%

Oakville Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 0.6%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  + 3.4%

Burlington Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 1.7%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  + 10.1%

Halton Hills Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 4.4%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  + 15.3%

Mississauga Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 5.8%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  + 11.1%

Posted by Christine Pecharich, 0 comments
JUNE MARKET STATISTICS

JUNE MARKET STATISTICS

GTA REALTORS® Release June 2019 Stats

July 4, 2019 — The new President of the Toronto Real Estate Board, Michael Collins, announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 8,860 sales through TREB’s MLS® System in June 2019, representing a 10.4 per cent increase compared to June 2018. Over the same time period, total new listings remained at a similar level for the month of June and active listings at month-end were down by 5.7 per cent.

Sales and new listings statistics for the first half of 2019 compared to the same period in 2018 painted a similar story to that of June. Sales were up by 8.5 per cent, while new listings were up by less than one per cent. This shows that sales accounted for a greater share of listings compared to last year, which means that competition between buyers increased, resulting in renewed price growth in many segments of the market.

“As I start my term as President of the Toronto Real Estate Board, I am proud to say that the Greater Toronto Area continues to grow, in terms of employment, population and overall diversity. As people are attracted to our region from all around the world, they obviously need a place to live. Over the next year, as demand for ownership and rental housing continues to grow, my hope is that we will see more movement from policy makers on two fronts: alleviating the constrained supply of housing and providing more flexibility around demand-side policies, including the OSFI two percentage point mortgage stress test and allowable amortization periods on insured mortgages,” said Mr. Collins.

The overall average selling price in June 2019 was $832,703 – up by three per cent compared to the average of $808,066 in June 2018. Price growth was driven by the higher density market segments, including semi-detached houses, townhouses and condominium apartments. The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by a similar annual rate of 3.6 per cent. For the first half of 2019, the average selling price was $810,661, representing an increase of 2.4 per cent compared to the first half of 2018.

“Buyers started moving off the sidelines in the spring, as evidenced by strong year-over-year price growth throughout the second quarter. However, because we saw virtually no change in the number of new listings, market conditions tightened and price growth picked up, especially for more higher density home types, which, on average, are less-expensive than traditional detached houses and therefore provide more affordable housing options under the new OSFI stress test regime,” said Jason Mercer, TREB’s Chief Market Analyst.

Milton Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 6.4%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  + 22.3%

Oakville Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  – 1 %

Number of Sales over this time last year:  + 4.5 %

Burlington Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  0 %

Number of Sales over this time last year:  + 11 %

Halton Hills (Georgetown) Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 3.2 %

Number of Sales over this time last year:  + 15.4 %

Mississauga Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 5.5%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  + 8.2%

Posted by Christine Pecharich in Burlington, Georgetown, Market Reports, Milton, Mississauga, Oakville, summer, 0 comments