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May 2022 Market Stats are in!

May 2022 Market Stats are in!

Market Watch

GTA REALTORS® Release May Stats

Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market conditions continued to evolve in response to higher borrowing costs. Similar to April results, May 2022 sales were down on a monthly and annual basis. Conversely, active listings at the end of May were up on a month-over-month and year-over-year basis. More balanced market conditions have provided buyers with more negotiating power. As a result, while benchmark and average home prices were up substantially compared to last year, selling prices trended lower on a month-over-month basis.

”Bank of Canada rate hikes, including the 50-basis point hike on June 1, are impacting home buyers in the short term. There is now a psychological aspect where potential buyers are waiting for a bottom in price. This will likely continue through the summer. However, as home buyers adjust to higher borrowing costs, housing demand will be supported by extremely low unemployment, high job vacancies, rising incomes and record immigration,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

GTA REALTORS reported 7,283 sales through TRREB’s MLS System in May 2022 – down 38.8 per cent compared to May 2021 and down nine per cent compared to April 2022. The number of new May listings was similar to last year’s level and edged up on a month-over-month basis. With sales down and new listings trend flat to slightly up, the number of active listings was up on a year-over-year basis by 26 per cent.

Market conditions remained tight enough to support an overall average selling price of $1,212,806 for May 2022, representing an annual growth rate of 9.4 per cent. The MLS Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was also up on a year-over-year basis by 23.9 per cent. On a month-over-month basis, both price metrics were lower, reflecting more balanced market conditions.

”Price trends observed over the past three months – both in terms of moderating annual growth rates and the recent month-over-month dips – are in line with TRREB’s forecast for 2022. After a strong start to the year, the current rate tightening cycle has changed market dynamics, with many potential home buyers putting their purchase on hold. This has led to more balance in the market, providing buyers with more negotiating power,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

Milton Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 21.7%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  -34.9 %

Oakville Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 17.8%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  -37.8%

 

Burlington Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 24.0%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  -20.8 %

 

Halton Hills (Georgetown) Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 26.2%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  -20.8 %

Mississauga Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 15.8%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  -29.8 %

Guelph Summary:

Average Sale Price for May 2022   $ 894,065

Percent increase over this time last year +14.3%

Average Days on Market 12

Homes Sold in May 2022 #194  -31.4%

Posted by Christine Pecharich in Burlington, Georgetown, Guelph, Halton Hills, Market Reports, Milton, Mississauga, Oakville
March 2022 Market Statistics

March 2022 Market Statistics

Market Watch

GTA REALTORS® Release March Stats

There were almost 11,000 Greater Toronto Area (GTA) home sales reported in March 2022, capping off the third-best March and second-best first quarter on record. Tight market conditions continued to support a double-digit annual pace of price growth, with an average selling price of $1.3 million. The average selling price dipped slightly month-over-month, bucking the regular seasonal trend.

“Now is the time for governments to govern and focus on measures that are proven to increase housing supply. The GTA population will experience rapid growth in the coming years as our region’s economic strength and diversity continues to attract people from around the world. In order to sustain this growth, we need adequate housing supply and choice. This needs to be the focus of policymakers rather than short-term and ineffective measures to artificially suppress demand. Evidence-based decision-making should inform government policies, and we encourage representatives at all levels of government to think big and act decisively to improve needed housing supply in a significant way,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

GTA REALTORS® reported 10,955 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in March 2022, representing a 30 per cent decline compared to the record result of 15,628 in March 2021. While sales were down year-over-year for all major market segments, condominium apartment transactions dipped by a much lesser annual rate.

New listings were also down on a year-over-year basis, but by a much lesser annual rate than sales. This suggests that while market conditions remained very tight, home buyers did not experience the same level of competition from other buyers compared to a year earlier.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark was up by 34.8 per cent year-over-year in March 2022. This annual rate of increase was down slightly from February. The average selling price was up by 18.5 per cent year-over-year. The annual growth rates for the MLS HPI® and average selling price differed, in part, because the mix of homes sold in March 2022 shifted in favour of condominium apartments which generally sell for a lower average price compared to other home types.

“Competition between home buyers in the GTA remains very strong in most neighbourhoods and market segments. However, we did experience more balance in the first quarter of 2022 compared to last year. If this trend continues, it is possible that the pace of price growth could moderate as we move through the year,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

Milton Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 28.1%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  -28 %

Oakville Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 23.1%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  -33.7 %

Burlington Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 28.4%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  -19.2%

Halton Hills Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 26.3%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  -10.1 %

 

Mississauga Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 19%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  -20.8 %

 

Guelph Summary:

Average Sale Price for March 2022   $ 970,492

Percent increase over this time last year +30.2%

Average Days on Market 7

Homes Sold in March 2022 #257  -28.6%

 

Posted by Christine Pecharich in Blog Posts, Brampton, Burlington, Georgetown, Guelph, Halton Hills, Market Reports, Milton, Mississauga, Oakville, Toronto
November 2021 Market Statistics

November 2021 Market Statistics

GTA REALTORS® Release November 2021 Stats

Home sales reached a new record for the month of November and the average selling price also reached a new all-time high. New listings were down substantially compared to last year for all market segments – further highlighting the inherent supply issue across all home types in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA).

GTA REALTORS® reported 9,017 home sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in November 2021 – 3.3 per cent above the November 2020 result, setting a new record. In contrast, new listings were down by 13.2 per cent year-over-year, with double-digit declines for low-rise home types, and condominium apartments.

“Governments at all levels must take coordinated action to increase supply in the immediate term to begin addressing the supply challenges of today, and to work towards satisfying growing demand in the future. The GTA remains the primary destination for new immigrants, and is at the centre of the Canadian economy. For far too long governments have focused on short term bandaid policies to artificially suppress demand. Current market activity highlights decisively that these policies do not work, and unless governments work together to cut red tape, streamline the approval processes, and incentivize mid-density housing ongoing housing affordability challenges will escalate. On this point, we commend the City of Toronto for moving forward with initiatives to facilitate the creation of more mid-density home types, including their current consultations on options to encourage more multiplex development across the city,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark was up by 28.3 per cent year-over-year in November 2021. The average selling price for all home types combined was $1,163,323 – up by 21.7 per cent compared to November 2020.

“A key difference this year compared to last is how the condo segment continues to tighten and experience an acceleration in price growth, particularly in suburban areas. This speaks to the broadening of economic recovery, with first-time buyers moving back into the market in a big way this year. The condo and townhouse segments, with lower price points on average, will remain popular as population growth picks up over the next two years,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

Milton Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 24.7%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +22.6 %

Oakville Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 19.2%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +29.4 %

Burlington Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 20.4%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +19.8 %

Halton Hills Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 14.6%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +34.4 %

Mississauga Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 14.6%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +34.4 %

Guelph Summary:

Average Sale Price for November 2021   $ 846,634

Percent increase over this time last year +27.9%

Average Days on Market 10

Homes Sold in November 2021 #184 down -5.6%

Posted by Christine Pecharich
Is the Real Estate Market Going to Crash?

Is the Real Estate Market Going to Crash?

While many areas of the economy have contracted, the housing market has stayed remarkably strong. But can the good news last?

 

When COVID-related shutdowns began in March, real estate brokers and clients scrambled to respond to the shift. Record-low interest rates caused some lenders to call a halt to new underwriting, and homeowners debated whether or not to put their houses on the market. However, those first days of uncertainty ushered in a period of unprecedented growth in the Canadian residential real estate market, which currently accounts for a record-setting 9% of the country’s overall economic output.1

 

Now, as the spring market approaches, you may be wondering whether the good times can continue to roll on. If you’re a homeowner, should you take advantage of this opportunity by putting your home on the market? If you’re a buyer, should you jump in and risk paying too much? Below we answer some of your most pressing questions.

 

 

Why are home prices rising during an economic downturn?

 

At the beginning of the pandemic, fears of an economic recession were top of mind for homeowners all across the country. Overall, credit product origination declined across a variety of sectors, including car loans and credit cards, and government forbearance programs were put into place to cushion the blow of anticipated economic hardships. However, strong demand —coupled with ultra-low inventory and interest rates—caused real estate prices to continue to rise. The national average resale price soared 17% during 2020, and mortgage originations showed year-over-year growth of almost 30% on the strength of renewals and refinancing in response to record-low interest rates.1,2

 

According to the Bloomberg-Nanos Consumer Confidence Index, confidence in Canada’s real estate industry reached its highest level on record during the thick of the pandemic.3  Montreal Chief Economist Douglas Porter attributes much of the ongoing strength of Canada’s real estate market to a simple matter of consumer choice and priorities while noting that the downside of the resulting rise in home values is increasing consumer debt.1

 

 

Are we facing a real estate bubble?

 

A real estate bubble can occur when there is a rapid and unjustified increase in housing prices, often triggered by speculation from investors. Because the bubble is (in a sense) filled with “hot air,” it pops—and a swift drop in value occurs. This leads to reduced equity or, in some cases, negative equity conditions.

 

By contrast, the current rise in home prices is based on the predictable results of historically low interest rates and widespread low inventory. Basically, the principle of supply and demand is working just as it is supposed to do.

Effects of low interest rates

The Bank of Canada projects continuing low interest rates until sometime in 2023, aiding in economic recovery and increasing affordability.4 This helps offset the effects of high home costs even in markets where real estate might otherwise be considered overpriced. These low interest rates should keep the market lively and moving forward for the foreseeable future.

Effects of low inventory

Continuing low inventory is the primary reason for higher-than-average home prices in many markets.5 This should gradually ease as an aggressive vaccination rollout and continuing buyer demand drive more homeowners to move forward with long-delayed sales plans and as new home construction ramps up to meet demand.6

 

 

Aren’t some markets and sectors looking particularly weak?

 

One of the big stories of 2020 was a mass exodus from attached home communities and high-priced urban markets as both young professionals and families fled to the larger square footage and wide-open spaces of suburban and rural markets. This trend was reinforced by work from home policies that became permanent at some of the country’s biggest companies.

 

Not surprisingly then, one of the hardest-hit sectors of the residential real estate market has been the rental market, especially in population-dense metropolitan areas. The rise in vacancies has been fueled by several factors, including less international migration, fewer student renters, and less tourist demand for short-term rentals.7

 

Interestingly, landlords have not responded to these vacancies with lower rental rates, which have actually risen nationally. Instead, most have used incentives like lower deposit fees, free utilities, and move-in bonuses to attract renters. This suggests that most property owners expect demand to return to normal quite quickly as the vaccine rollout begins to take effect.7

 

Some analysts predict a decline in the Canadian housing market at large due to the impending end of government emergency measures and lender deferrals. However, others point to the increased demand for homes in smaller markets and lower-density areas outside of the country’s urban centers as an optimistic indicator, especially since these distant suburban and rural enclaves don’t normally benefit from increases in home values or an influx of new investment.8 As many of these new residents set up housekeeping in their rural retreats, they’ll revitalize the economies of their adopted communities for years to come.

 

According to Susan Hosterman, a senior director at Fitch Ratings, another strength that may help to alleviate the effect of financial pressures brought about by the ending of emergency measures is the relationship lenders in Canada have with their borrowers. Canadian lenders tend to be proactive in offering modifications to make loans more affordable for struggling homeowners.8

 

 

How has COVID affected the “seasonal” real estate market?

 

Frequently, the real estate market is seen as a seasonal phenomenon. However, the widespread shutdowns in March 2020, coming right at the beginning of the market’s growth cycle in many areas, has led to a protracted, seemingly endless “hot spring market.”

 

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) revised its 2021 Market Forecast based on more robust than usual figures for the second half of 2020. The new projection anticipates improvements even over 2020’s record-setting market figures, with potential sales limited only by the availability of inventory in most markets.9 Thus, we could be looking at another longer-than-usual, white-hot real estate market.

 

 

What’s next for the Canadian real estate market?

 

Projections vary widely, with some economists predicting a market correction and others predicting continuing strong growth. Overall, low inventory and lack of affordability appear to be the more negative factors applying downward pressures on the market, while pent-up demand and a return to normal employment and income levels, along with anticipated higher-than-average growth in the economy, point to ongoing good news in the sector.10

 

According to most indicators, the real estate news looks overwhelmingly positive throughout the rest of 2021—and possibly beyond. Pent-up demand and consumer-driven policies, along with a continued low-interest-rate environment and rising inventory, should help homeowners hold on to their increased equity without throwing the market out of balance. In addition, the increase in long-term work-from-home policies promises to give a boost to a wide variety of markets, both now and in the years to come.

 

 

STILL HAVE QUESTIONS? WE HAVE ANSWERS

 

While economic indicators and trends are national, real estate is local. We’re here to answer your questions and help you understand what’s happening in your neighbourhood. Reach out to learn how these larger movements affect our local market and your home’s value.

 

 

Sources:

  1. Huffington Post –
    https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/house-prices-canada-bmo_ca_600c7a98c5b6d64153ac675b
  2. Global Newswire –
    https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/08/18/2079742/0/en/COVID-19-Pandemic-Drives-a-Decline-in-the-Use-of-Credit-as-Canadian-Consumers-and-Lenders-Brace-for-Uncertainty.html
  3. Weekly Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index –
    https://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/2021-01-08-Bloomberg-Weekly-Report-with-Tabs.pdf
  4. Bank of Canada –
    https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2021/01/fad-press-release-2021-01-20/
  5. Toronto Star –
    https://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2021/01/27/supply-of-new-homes-in-the-gta-dwindling-amidst-sales-boom.html
  6. Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report –
    https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/mpr-2021-01-20.pdf
  7. CTV News –
    https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/cmhc-rental-vacancies-prices-edged-up-as-covid-19-spread-across-canada-1.5286012
  8. Huffington Post –
    https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/housing-forecast-canada-2021_ca_5fec942cc5b64e4421082979
  9. Canadian Real Estate Association –
    https://www.crea.ca/news/crea-updates-resale-housing-market-forecast-7/
  10. Canadian Mortgage Trends –
    https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2021/01/canadas-energizer-bunny-housing-market-2021-forecasts/
Posted by Christine Pecharich