Burlington Real Estate

August 2021 Market Statistics

August 2021 Market Statistics

Market Watch

GTA REALTORS® Release August 2021 Stats

TRREB is reporting the third-best sales result on record for the month of August. While the market has taken its regular summer breather, it is clear that the demand for ownership housing remains strong. At the same time, the supply of listings is down. The result has been tighter market conditions and sustained competition between buyers, resulting in double-digit annual increases in selling prices.

Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 8,596 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in August 2021 – down by 19.9 per cent compared to the August 2020 record of 10,738. The condominium apartment market segment bucked the overall sales trend, with year-over-year growth in sales, continuing a marked resurgence in 2021. The number of new listings entered into the System was down year-over-year by 43 per cent.

The fact that new listings were at the lowest level for the past decade is alarming. It is clear that the supply of homes is not keeping pace with demand, and this situation will become worse once immigration into Canada resumes. The federal parties vying for office in the upcoming federal election have all made housing supply and affordability a focal point. Working with provincial and municipal levels of government on solving supply-related issues is much more important to affordability than interfering with consumer choice during the home buying and selling offer process or revisiting demand-side policies that will at best have a short-term impact on market conditions,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

The August 2021 MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark was up by 17.4 per cent year-over-year. The average selling price for all homes combined was up by 12.6 per cent year-over-year to $1,070,911. The strongest annual rates of price growth are still being experienced for low-rise home types. However, average condominium apartment price growth is now well-above inflation as well. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average selling price continued to trend upward in August.

“Sales have accounted for a much higher share of new listings this year compared to last, and the story was no different in August. There has been no relief on the supply side for home buyers, in fact, competition between these buyers have increased. As we move toward 2022, expect market conditions to become tighter as population growth in the GTA starts to trend back to pre-COVID levels,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

Milton Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 26.1%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +45.3 %

Oakville Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 22.8%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +52.6 %

Burlington Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 20.9%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +42.6 %

Halton Hills Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 24.3%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +56.4 %

Mississauga Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 15.2%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +56.4 %

Guelph Summary:

Average Sale Price for August 2021   $ 757,651

Percent increase over this time last year +17.1%

Average Days on Market 13

Homes Sold in August 2021 #168 down -20.4%

 

Posted by Christine Pecharich in Blog Posts, Brampton, Burlington, Georgetown, Guelph, Halton Hills, Market Reports, Milton, Mississauga, Oakville, Toronto
July 2021 Market Statistics

July 2021 Market Statistics

GTA REALTORS® Release July 2021 Stats

With almost 9,400 sales reported in July 2021, demand for ownership housing remained well-above average for the time of year despite being below the record July result set a year earlier. Market conditions actually tightened relative to July 2020, with sales accounting for a greater share of new listings compared to last year. The sellers’ market conditions sustained a double-digit annual rate of price growth.

“Demand for ownership housing has remained strong despite a pandemic-related lull in population growth. Of specific note is the condominium apartment market, which has seen a marked turn-around in 2021 with sales up compared to last year. First-time buyers, many of whom were slower to benefit from the initial recovery phase, remain very active in the marketplace,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 9,390 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in July 2021 – down by 14.9 per cent compared to July 2020 result of 11,033. On a seasonally adjusted basis, July sales were down by two per cent compared to June.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 18.1 per cent compared to July 2020. The average price for all home types combined was $1,062,256 – up 12.6 per cent compared to July 2020. The detached market segment led the way in terms of price growth, driven by sales in the suburban regions surrounding Toronto. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average price was up by 0.9 per cent compared to June.

“The annual rate of price growth has moderated since the early spring but has remained in the double digits. This means that many households are still competing very hard to reach a deal on a home. This strong upward pressure on home prices will be sustained in the absence of more supply, especially as we see a resurgence in population growth moving into 2022,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

Milton Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 27.3%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +61.3 %

Oakville Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 24.7%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +72.6 %

Burlington Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 21.6%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +55.4 %

Halton Hills Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 26.6%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +21.8 %

Mississauga Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 18.8%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +123.5 %

Guelph Summary:

Average Sale Price for June 2021   $ 740,000

Percent increase over this time last year +22%

Average Days on Market 13

Homes Sold in July 2021 #209  down -27.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted by Christine Pecharich in Burlington, Georgetown, Guelph, Halton Hills, Market Reports, Milton, Mississauga, Oakville, Toronto
5 Factors That Reveal Where the Real Estate Market Is Really Headed

5 Factors That Reveal Where the Real Estate Market Is Really Headed

In a July release, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported that home sales had fallen for three months in a row after reaching an all-time high in March.1 So could one of the world’s hottest real estate markets finally be headed for a downturn?

We wouldn’t bet on it. That’s because even though sales have slowed, it was still the strongest June on record—and 13% higher than last year.1

“Don’t be fooled — this is still an extremely strong level of demand,” Bank of Montreal Economist Robert Kavcic told CBC News. “Home sales have backed off extreme levels seen in recent months, but demand is still historically strong and driving strong price growth. We believe that sales activity will continue to gradually cool in the year ahead, but it’s going to take higher interest rates to soften the market in a meaningful way.”1

So what can we expect from Canadian real estate? Here are five factors that illustrate where the housing market is today and is likely heading tomorrow.

 

HOME PRICE INCREASES MAY LEVEL OFF NEXT YEAR

The Canadian Real Estate Association predicts the national average home price will reach $677,774 by the end of 2021, which would be a 19.3% increase over last year. “While market conditions have eased a little in recent months, they nonetheless continue to favour sellers to some extent in virtually all local markets,” the association says.2

But for the remainder of 2021 and into 2022, the association anticipates pricing trends will head toward more normal territory. “Limited supply and higher prices are expected to tap the brakes on activity in 2022 compared to 2021,” according to the association.2

That translates into the association’s forecast of only a 0.6% uptick, to $681,500, in the national average home price for 2022.2 If that happens, it could prompt some buyers who had been reluctant to make purchases this year to enter the market next year.

What does it mean for you?

If you’re a homeowner, now might be the time to look at selling. That’s because the number of available homes continues to be relatively low, and price appreciation has begun to slow. We can help you prepare and market your home to take advantage of the current seller’s market.

 

HOME SALES ARE TAPERING OFF

If the 2021 home market in Canada is a wildfire, then 2022 could be more like a campfire. The Canadian Real Estate Association anticipates a slowdown in home sales activity in 2022 following an extremely busy 2021.3

An estimated 682,900 properties are expected to trade hands through Canadian Multiple Listing Service systems in 2021, which would be an increase of 23.8% from 2020, the association says.3

Next year is shaping up to be much less active, with national home sales forecast to decline 13% to around 594,000 properties in 2022.3

“This easing trend is expected to play out across Canada,” the association says, “with buyers facing both higher prices and a lack of available supply, while at the same time the urgency to purchase a home base to ride out the pandemic continues to fade alongside the virus itself.”3

The “easing trend” is already happening. Across the country, a record-high 69,702 homes were sold in March. But just a month later, the national number of homes sold slipped 12.5% to 60,967. ⁴ Home sales volume dropped another 7.4% in May to 56,156. ⁵

“One of the world’s [most active] housing markets appears to be slowing down,” the Bloomberg news service proclaimed in June in a report about the Canadian home market. ⁶

What does it mean for you?

Are you struggling to buy a home in today’s highly competitive market? If so, 2022 might be a good time to pursue a purchase because you may face less competition. However, one drawback of waiting is that mortgage rates are expected to go up. We can help put you on the right path toward homeownership, whether you want to buy now or next year.

 

SUPPLY OF HOMES REMAINS LOW

The housing shortage in Canada persists.

Before the pandemic, the number of available homes nationally sat at a 14-year low and the number of months of inventory had fallen below four months, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.3

Inventory below four months puts the supply in “seller’s market territory,” the association says.3 Inventory refers to the number of months it would take for the current supply of homes on the market to be sold at the existing pace.⁷

In June, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported the national inventory of available homes was close to two months, reflecting an “unprecedented imbalance of supply and demand.”3 National inventory hit a record low of 1.7 months in March, compared with the long-term average of more than five months. ⁷

“At a time where so many markets are struggling with historically low inventory, sales activity depends on a steady stream of new listings each month,” the association says. ⁷

What does it mean for you?

A tight supply of available homes puts sellers in a strong position as long as demand stays high. So, if you’re a homeowner, placing your home on the market when demand exceeds supply could bring you a higher price. We can help you figure out when to sell so that you extract the maximum value from your home.

 

HOME CONSTRUCTION ON THE VERGE OF STABILIZING

Newly built homes add, of course, to the supply of homes available to buyers. And it appears that home construction in Canada is on the upswing. ⁸

For all of 2021, construction is projected to begin on as many as 230,000 new homes in Canada, up from a little over 217,800 in 2020, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC). Even more homes could get underway in 2022 (as many as 234,500) and 2023 (231,900). ⁸

“Housing starts will stabilize at levels consistent with household formation by the end of 2023,” according to CMHC. ⁹

What does it mean for you?

More newly built homes coming on the market could mean an opportunity for buyers, as construction boosts the supply of available properties and eases the strain on demand. Bottom line: An influx of new homes may open more doors to homeownership. We can give you a hand in locating a new or existing home that fits your budget and your needs.

 

MORTGAGE RATES ARE SET TO RISE

Low mortgage interest rates help entice buyers to make a home purchase. That’s certainly been the case in Canada in recent months. However, mortgage rates are poised to creep up this year and next year, and even into 2023.10

An analysis from Mortgage Sandbox indicates five-year Canadian mortgage rates are expected to remain low by historical standards, but they are expected to continue rising in 2022 and 2023. The analysis indicates the fixed rate for a five-year mortgage could climb to 3% in the third quarter of 2022. ¹¹

Low mortgage rates typically make it easier for homebuyers to qualify for a mortgage, as well. But on June 1, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions raised the mortgage “stress test” qualifying rate from 4.79% to 5.25%.12

According to the Toronto Sun, “It was intended in part to slow down the overheated housing market and likely in part because inflation (and higher interest rates) is on the horizon.”12

In a recent report, the British Columbia Real Estate Association forecast, “rising Canadian inflation — and the extent to which that inflation is a temporary phenomenon — is set to shape how rates evolve over the next year.”13

What does it mean for you?

Given the prospect that Canadian mortgage rates may go up during the rest of this year and into 2022, now might be the right time to think about borrowing money to buy a home. When interest rates rise, you pay more to borrow money. Whether you’re buying a new home or up for a renewal, you can lower your risk by locking in a fixed-rate rather than variable-rate mortgage.

 

 ARE YOU THINKING OF BUYING OR SELLING?

It can be tough to sort out the Canadian housing market—where are home prices heading, are mortgage rates going up, is it the right time to buy or sell? We can help you answer all those questions, and more. We then can work with you to come up with a plan tailored to your unique situation. Let us be your partner in the homebuying or home-selling journey.

 

 

 

 

Sources:

  1. CBC –
    https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/crea-june-stats-1.6103715
  2. Canadian Real Estate Association –
    https://www.crea.ca/housing-market-stats/quarterly-forecasts/
  3. Canadian Real Estate Association – https://www.creacafe.ca/quarterly-forecast-housing-activity-to-continue-easing-over-second-half-of-2021-and-into-2022/
  4. Global News –
    https://globalnews.ca/news/7868251/canada-home-sales-down-april/
  5. Global News –
    https://globalnews.ca/news/7950863/canada-home-sales-may-crea/
  6. Bloomberg – https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-15/canada-housing-worlds-second-bubbliest-market-starts-to-look-fatigued
  7. Canadian Real Estate Association –
    https://creastats.crea.ca/en-CA/
  8. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. – https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sites/cmhc/professional/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market/housing-market-outlook/2021/housing-market-outlook-61500-spring-2021-en.pdf
  9. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. – https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/blog/2021/housing-markets-expected-moderate-risks-remain
  10. Global News –
    https://globalnews.ca/news/7962282/rising-interest-rates-canadas-housing-market/
  11. Mortgage Sandbox –
    https://www.mortgagesandbox.com/mortgage-interest-rate-forecast
  12. Toronto Sun –
    https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/wild-new-stress-test-rate-makes-it-more-difficult-for-home-buyers-to-qualify-for-mortgage
  13. British Columbia Real Estate Association – https://www.bcrea.bc.ca/wp-content/uploads/mortgagerateforecast.pdf

 

 

Posted by Christine Pecharich in Blog Posts
June 2021 Market Statistics

June 2021 Market Statistics

GTA REALTORS® Release June 2021 Stats

June home sales were up compared to last year but remained below the March 2021 peak and were lower than the number of transactions reported for May 2021, consistent with the regular seasonal trend. The average selling price in June increased by double digits compared to last year as well, but the annual rate of increase moderated compared to the previous three months.

Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 11,106 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in June 2021 – up by 28.5 per cent compared to June 2020. Looking at the GTA as a whole, year-over-year sales growth was strongest in the condominium apartment segment, both in the City of Toronto and some of the surrounding suburbs. On a month over-month basis, both actual and seasonally adjusted sales continued to trend lower in June.

“We have seen market activity transition from a record pace to a robust pace over the last three months. While this could provide some relief for home buyers in the near term, a resumption of population growth based on immigration is only months away. While the primary focus of policymakers has been artificially curbing demand, the only long-term solution to affordability is increasing supply to accommodate perpetual housing needs in a growing region,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

In all major market segments, year-over-year growth in sales well outpaced growth in new listings over the same period, pointing to the continuation of tight market conditions characterized by competition between buyers and strong price growth. On a month-over-month basis, both actual and seasonally adjusted average prices edged lower in June.

The June 2021 MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark was up by 19.9 per cent year over year. The average selling price for all home types combined was up by 17 per cent over the same time period to $1,089,536. While price growth continued to be driven by the low-rise segments of the market, it is important to note that the average condominium apartment price was up by more than eight per cent compared to June 2020, well outstripping inflation.

Milton Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 16%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +85.6 %

Oakville Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 26.7%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +98.4 %

Burlington Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 23.1%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +82.6 %

Halton Hills Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 28.2%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +40.4 %

Mississauga Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 19.6%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +95.6 %

Guelph Summary:

Average Sale Price for June 2021   $ 726,013

Percent increase over this time last year +18.7%

Average Days on Market 11

Homes Sold in June 2021   #275  up +7.4%

Posted by Christine Pecharich in Blog Posts, Brampton, Burlington, Georgetown, Guelph, Halton Hills, Market Reports, Milton, Mississauga, Oakville, Toronto
May 2021 Market Statistics

May 2021 Market Statistics

GTA REALTORS® Release May 2021 Stats

Residential transactions reported through TRREB’s MLS® System remained high in May 2021, but fell short of the 2016 record and were below this year’s March peak. Despite a slight ebb in sales over the last two months, market conditions remained tight enough to push the average selling price to an all-time record in May.

Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 11,951 sales in May 2021 – more than double the result from May 2020, the second full month of the pandemic. May 2021 sales were below the May 2016 record of 12,789 but remained well above the average May sales of 10,336 for the 2010 through 2019 period. Often, May is the strongest sales month in any given year; however, 2021 results bucked this trend, with May sales below the 15,646 deals reported in March.

“There has been strong demand for ownership housing in all parts of the GTA for both ground-oriented home types and condominium apartments. This was fueled by confidence in economic recovery and low borrowing costs. However, in the absence of a normal pace of population growth, we saw a pullback in sales over the past two months relative to the March peak,” said TRREB President Lisa Patel.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by close to 19 per cent year-over-year in May 2021. The average selling price across all home types was up by 28.4 per cent year-over-year, reaching a record $1,108,453. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the average price increased by 1.1 per cent between April and May 2021.

“While sales have trended off the March 2021 peak, so too have new listings. This means that people actively looking to purchase a home continue to face a lot of competition from other buyers, which results in very strong upward pressure on selling prices. This competition is becoming more widespread with tighter market conditions in the condominium apartment segment as well,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

Milton Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 30.6%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +112.1 %

Oakville Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 30.6%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +123.8 %

Burlington Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 22.9%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +108.1 %

Halton Hills Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 28.6%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +60.9 %

Mississauga Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 21.2%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +111.4 %

Guelph Summary:

Average Sale Price for May 2021   $781,254

Percent increase over this time last year +34.6%

Average Days on Market 10

Homes Sold in May 2021   #282  up +79.6%

Posted by Christine Pecharich
April 2021 Market Statistics

April 2021 Market Statistics

GTA REALTORS® Release April 2021 Stats

Home sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) set a new record for April and amounted to more than quadruple that from April 2020 – the first full month of the pandemic. Bucking the regular seasonal trend, April 2021 sales actually declined month-over-month. A similar trend was noted for the number of new listings reported.

GTA REALTORS® reported 13,663 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in April 2021 – a 12.7 per cent decrease compared to March 2021, but more than quadruple the number of sales reported in April 2020, when the economic impact of COVID-19 was arguably the worst. Compared to the ten-year sales average of 10,000 for the April 2010 to April 2019 period, the April 2021 sales result was up by 36.6 per cent.

New listings followed a similar track – down by 8.4 per cent compared to March 2021, but more than triple the number of new listings reported in April 2020. Compared to the ten-year new listings average for the April 2010 to April 2019 period, the April 2021 new listings count was up by 18.3 per cent.

“While sales remained very strong last month, many REALTORS® noted a marked slowing in both the number of transactions and the number of new listings. It makes sense that we had a pullback in market activity compared to March. We’ve experienced a torrid pace of home sales since the summer of 2020 while seeing little in the way of population growth. We may be starting to exhaust the pool of potential buyers within the existing GTA population. Over the long term, sustained growth in sales requires sustained growth in population,” said TRREB President Lisa Patel.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark was up by 17.8 per cent year-over-year. The Composite benchmark also increased on a monthly basis, but the pace of monthly growth decelerated. The average selling price of $1,090,992 was up by 33 per cent compared to April 2020, but was basically flat relative to March 2021. This was in contrast to most years in the past when the average selling price increased between March and April.

“Despite a modest slowing in market activity in April compared to March, selling prices for all major home types remained very high. Low borrowing costs during COVID-19 clearly had an impact on the demand for and price of ownership housing. While the pace of price growth could moderate in the coming months, home prices will likely continue on the upward trend. Renewed population growth over the next year coupled with a persistent lack of new inventory will underpin home price appreciation,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

Milton Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 29%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +106.4 %

Oakville Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 30.1%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +114.8 %

Burlington Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 24.3%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +100.1 %

Halton Hills Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 32.5%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +58.8 %

Mississauga Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 18.7%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +101.5 %

Guelph Summary:

Average Sale Price for April 2021   $752,993

Percent increase over this time last year +34 %

Average Days on Market 7

Homes Sold in April  2021   #294  up +276.9%

Posted by Christine Pecharich
March Market Statistics

March Market Statistics

GTA REALTORS® Release March 2021 Stats

For the third straight month of 2021, record home sales continued in March across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) with buyers taking advantage of favourable borrowing costs and continued improvement in many sectors of the economy.

GTA REALTORS® reported 15,652 sales in March 2021 – close to double that of March 2020. While sales were strong, it is important to remember that for the second half of March we are comparing against the initial impact of COVID-19 in the second half of March 2020 when sales activity dropped off dramatically. With this in mind, it is important to consider annual sales growth for the pre-COVID period (March 1 to 14, 2020) and COVID period (March 15 to 31, 2020):

– There were 6,504 sales reported during the first 14 days of March 2021 – up 41 per cent compared to the pre- COVID period in March 2020.

– There were 9,148 sales reported between March 15th and March 31st 2021, an increase of 174 per cent compared to the COVID period of March 2020. This is a stark reminder of the initial impact COVID-19 had on the housing market and overall economy a year ago.

For March 2021 as a whole, new listings were up 57 per cent year-over-year to 22,709. While representing a strong year-over-year increase, the annual growth rate for new listings was well-below that of sales.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark for March 2021 was up by 16.5 per cent compared to March 2020. The average selling price, at $1,097,565 was up by 21.6 per cent over the same period. Following the recent trend, low-rise home sales in regions surrounding the City of Toronto drove price growth.

Milton Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 25.7%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  + 77.1 %

 

Oakville Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 29.5%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +74.1%

Burlington Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 24.9%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +66.4%

Halton Hills Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 31.8%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +23.1 %

Mississauga Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  +17.5%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +62.9 %

Guelph Summary:

Average Sale Price for March 2021   $751,541

Percent increase over this time last year 27.3 %

Average Days on Market 6

Homes Sold in March 362  +62.3%

Posted by Christine Pecharich
February 2021 Market Statistics

February 2021 Market Statistics

GTA REALTORS® Release February 2021 Stats

Record home sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) continued in February as buyers remained confident in their employment situations and took advantage of ultra-low borrowing costs. With multiple buyers continuing to compete for many available listings, double-digit annual price growth was the norm throughout the GTA, with stronger rates of growth in the suburbs surrounding the City of Toronto.

GTA REALTORS® reported 10,970 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in February 2021 – a 52.5 per cent increase compared to 7,193 sales reported in February 2020. Looking at all areas of the GTA combined, the condominium apartment segment led the way with a 64 per cent sales increase compared to last year, with similar rates of increase in the ‘416’ and ‘905’ area codes.

“It’s clear that the historic demand for housing experienced in the second half of last year has carried forward into the first quarter of this year with some similar themes, including the continued popularity of suburban low-rise properties. It’s also evident that the supply of listings is not keeping up with demand, which could present an even larger problem once population growth picks up following widespread vaccinations later this year and into 2022,” said TRREB President Lisa Patel.

The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 14.8 per cent year-over-year in February 2021. Over the same period, the average selling price was up by 14.9 per cent to $1,045,488. While market conditions were tight throughout the GTA region in February, the detached, semi-detached and townhouse market segments in suburban areas were the drivers of average price growth, with annual rates of increase above 20 per cent in all three cases.

“In the absence of a marked uptick in inventory, the current relationship between demand and supply supports continued double-digit average home price growth this year. In addition, if we continue to see growth in condo sales outstrip growth in new condo listings in Toronto, renewed price growth in this market segment is a distinct possibility in the second half of the year,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

Milton Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 27.1%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  + 56.9 %

Oakville Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 24.4%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +47.8 %

Burlington Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 20%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +51.5 %

Halton Hills Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 27.2%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  – 9.8 %

Mississauga Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 34.2%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +81.9 %

Guelph Summary:

Average Sale Price for February 2021   $735,374

Percent increase over this time last year 23 %

Average Days on Market 6

Posted by Christine Pecharich in Burlington, Georgetown, Guelph, Halton Hills, Market Reports, Milton, Mississauga, Oakville
Is the Real Estate Market Going to Crash?

Is the Real Estate Market Going to Crash?

While many areas of the economy have contracted, the housing market has stayed remarkably strong. But can the good news last?

 

When COVID-related shutdowns began in March, real estate brokers and clients scrambled to respond to the shift. Record-low interest rates caused some lenders to call a halt to new underwriting, and homeowners debated whether or not to put their houses on the market. However, those first days of uncertainty ushered in a period of unprecedented growth in the Canadian residential real estate market, which currently accounts for a record-setting 9% of the country’s overall economic output.1

 

Now, as the spring market approaches, you may be wondering whether the good times can continue to roll on. If you’re a homeowner, should you take advantage of this opportunity by putting your home on the market? If you’re a buyer, should you jump in and risk paying too much? Below we answer some of your most pressing questions.

 

 

Why are home prices rising during an economic downturn?

 

At the beginning of the pandemic, fears of an economic recession were top of mind for homeowners all across the country. Overall, credit product origination declined across a variety of sectors, including car loans and credit cards, and government forbearance programs were put into place to cushion the blow of anticipated economic hardships. However, strong demand —coupled with ultra-low inventory and interest rates—caused real estate prices to continue to rise. The national average resale price soared 17% during 2020, and mortgage originations showed year-over-year growth of almost 30% on the strength of renewals and refinancing in response to record-low interest rates.1,2

 

According to the Bloomberg-Nanos Consumer Confidence Index, confidence in Canada’s real estate industry reached its highest level on record during the thick of the pandemic.3  Montreal Chief Economist Douglas Porter attributes much of the ongoing strength of Canada’s real estate market to a simple matter of consumer choice and priorities while noting that the downside of the resulting rise in home values is increasing consumer debt.1

 

 

Are we facing a real estate bubble?

 

A real estate bubble can occur when there is a rapid and unjustified increase in housing prices, often triggered by speculation from investors. Because the bubble is (in a sense) filled with “hot air,” it pops—and a swift drop in value occurs. This leads to reduced equity or, in some cases, negative equity conditions.

 

By contrast, the current rise in home prices is based on the predictable results of historically low interest rates and widespread low inventory. Basically, the principle of supply and demand is working just as it is supposed to do.

Effects of low interest rates

The Bank of Canada projects continuing low interest rates until sometime in 2023, aiding in economic recovery and increasing affordability.4 This helps offset the effects of high home costs even in markets where real estate might otherwise be considered overpriced. These low interest rates should keep the market lively and moving forward for the foreseeable future.

Effects of low inventory

Continuing low inventory is the primary reason for higher-than-average home prices in many markets.5 This should gradually ease as an aggressive vaccination rollout and continuing buyer demand drive more homeowners to move forward with long-delayed sales plans and as new home construction ramps up to meet demand.6

 

 

Aren’t some markets and sectors looking particularly weak?

 

One of the big stories of 2020 was a mass exodus from attached home communities and high-priced urban markets as both young professionals and families fled to the larger square footage and wide-open spaces of suburban and rural markets. This trend was reinforced by work from home policies that became permanent at some of the country’s biggest companies.

 

Not surprisingly then, one of the hardest-hit sectors of the residential real estate market has been the rental market, especially in population-dense metropolitan areas. The rise in vacancies has been fueled by several factors, including less international migration, fewer student renters, and less tourist demand for short-term rentals.7

 

Interestingly, landlords have not responded to these vacancies with lower rental rates, which have actually risen nationally. Instead, most have used incentives like lower deposit fees, free utilities, and move-in bonuses to attract renters. This suggests that most property owners expect demand to return to normal quite quickly as the vaccine rollout begins to take effect.7

 

Some analysts predict a decline in the Canadian housing market at large due to the impending end of government emergency measures and lender deferrals. However, others point to the increased demand for homes in smaller markets and lower-density areas outside of the country’s urban centers as an optimistic indicator, especially since these distant suburban and rural enclaves don’t normally benefit from increases in home values or an influx of new investment.8 As many of these new residents set up housekeeping in their rural retreats, they’ll revitalize the economies of their adopted communities for years to come.

 

According to Susan Hosterman, a senior director at Fitch Ratings, another strength that may help to alleviate the effect of financial pressures brought about by the ending of emergency measures is the relationship lenders in Canada have with their borrowers. Canadian lenders tend to be proactive in offering modifications to make loans more affordable for struggling homeowners.8

 

 

How has COVID affected the “seasonal” real estate market?

 

Frequently, the real estate market is seen as a seasonal phenomenon. However, the widespread shutdowns in March 2020, coming right at the beginning of the market’s growth cycle in many areas, has led to a protracted, seemingly endless “hot spring market.”

 

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) revised its 2021 Market Forecast based on more robust than usual figures for the second half of 2020. The new projection anticipates improvements even over 2020’s record-setting market figures, with potential sales limited only by the availability of inventory in most markets.9 Thus, we could be looking at another longer-than-usual, white-hot real estate market.

 

 

What’s next for the Canadian real estate market?

 

Projections vary widely, with some economists predicting a market correction and others predicting continuing strong growth. Overall, low inventory and lack of affordability appear to be the more negative factors applying downward pressures on the market, while pent-up demand and a return to normal employment and income levels, along with anticipated higher-than-average growth in the economy, point to ongoing good news in the sector.10

 

According to most indicators, the real estate news looks overwhelmingly positive throughout the rest of 2021—and possibly beyond. Pent-up demand and consumer-driven policies, along with a continued low-interest-rate environment and rising inventory, should help homeowners hold on to their increased equity without throwing the market out of balance. In addition, the increase in long-term work-from-home policies promises to give a boost to a wide variety of markets, both now and in the years to come.

 

 

STILL HAVE QUESTIONS? WE HAVE ANSWERS

 

While economic indicators and trends are national, real estate is local. We’re here to answer your questions and help you understand what’s happening in your neighbourhood. Reach out to learn how these larger movements affect our local market and your home’s value.

 

 

Sources:

  1. Huffington Post –
    https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/house-prices-canada-bmo_ca_600c7a98c5b6d64153ac675b
  2. Global Newswire –
    https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/08/18/2079742/0/en/COVID-19-Pandemic-Drives-a-Decline-in-the-Use-of-Credit-as-Canadian-Consumers-and-Lenders-Brace-for-Uncertainty.html
  3. Weekly Bloomberg Nanos Canadian Confidence Index –
    https://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/2021-01-08-Bloomberg-Weekly-Report-with-Tabs.pdf
  4. Bank of Canada –
    https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2021/01/fad-press-release-2021-01-20/
  5. Toronto Star –
    https://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2021/01/27/supply-of-new-homes-in-the-gta-dwindling-amidst-sales-boom.html
  6. Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report –
    https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/mpr-2021-01-20.pdf
  7. CTV News –
    https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/cmhc-rental-vacancies-prices-edged-up-as-covid-19-spread-across-canada-1.5286012
  8. Huffington Post –
    https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/housing-forecast-canada-2021_ca_5fec942cc5b64e4421082979
  9. Canadian Real Estate Association –
    https://www.crea.ca/news/crea-updates-resale-housing-market-forecast-7/
  10. Canadian Mortgage Trends –
    https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2021/01/canadas-energizer-bunny-housing-market-2021-forecasts/
Posted by Christine Pecharich
January 2021 Market Statistics

January 2021 Market Statistics

GTA REALTORS® Release January 2021 Stats

  • January 2021 home sales amounted to 6,928 – up by more than 50 per cent compared to January 2020. This strong start to 2021 included sales growth across all major segments including condominium apartments, both in the City of Toronto and surrounding GTA regions.
  • New listings were also up on a year-over-year basis in January, but not by the same annual rate as sales. This means market conditions tightened compared to January 2020, resulting in the continuation of double-digit growth in the MLS® Home Price Index and the average selling price.
  • The average selling price for January 2021 was up by 15.5 per cent to $967,885 year-over-year. The MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark was up by 11.9 per cent over the same period.
  • Price growth was driven by the low-rise market segments, while the average condo apartment price was down in Toronto. However, if we continue to see condo sales growth outstrip condo listings growth, we could start to see renewed growth in condo prices later this year.

Milton Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 26.4%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +49.5 %

Oakville Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 26.5%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +46.4 %

Burlington Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 15.3%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +48.8 %

Halton Hills Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 29.2%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  – 13.8 %

Mississauga Summary:

Average Sale Price over this time last year:  + 13.8%

Number of Sales over this time last year:  +44.6 %

Guelph Summary:

Average Sale Price for January 2021   $ 707,971

Percent increase over this time last year 35.3%

Average Days on Market 10

Posted by Christine Pecharich in Blog Posts, Brampton, Burlington, Georgetown, Guelph, Halton Hills, Market Reports, Milton, Mississauga, Oakville, Toronto